Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
