Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Immense energy is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
